stock exchange forecast  

Stock market crisis 1929-1934

Stock Market Crash

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MetaBourse, October 11, 2006 - 22h00

Dow Jones industrial average

graph
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Planetary index:
- simplified alternative, limited to the fondamental cycles
- uses ecliptic longitudes and declinations
- gives especially the main tendencies

Commentaire:

The 1929 Stock exchange crash illustrates pretty well the help that could be provided by the dynamic planetary index to set up an investment strategy.

When one talk about the stock exchange crash of 1929, the first thing that comes to mind to the majority of the people is of course the Tuesday October 29, that shows a very strong fall of the Down Jones. Or the Thursday October 24, 1929, the famous “black Thursday” which shook Wall Street.

The above graph gives a much more real vision of it.

It is known that the fall began at the end of a long period of rise and speculation which started in 1921, to lead to the historical record of September 3, 1929. For this period the MetaBourse index gives clearly an indication of rise.

Then, a phase of quasi continuous fall continued until 1932. The market started again to take a little height only after 1934. All this period of fall is explicitly announced by the planetary index.

This diagram of synthesis is well speaking because it is illustrated, a posteriori, by the historical courses. It is to note that we use a very simplified index, with an aim of illustrating the long term.

In real life, investors would also be interested by more detailed forecasts, relating to shorter sections of time.


Warning: Our stock market forecasts are set up very carefully, using daily tested technologies. But obviously, there are some remaining risks. Our forecasts are not advices of stock-exchange investment, and we do not provide any warranty. You may use them under your own responsibility.

Take care: The planetary index indicates a trend, it does not claim to give an exact forecast of the prices. There may be slight time-lags between forecasts and reality. There is no steady accurate ratio between prices and planetary indexes. Speculative trades must always be secured, even if using planetary indications.

Comments:
upper chart: The real prices on the Stock Exchanges. The curves stop at the last traded prices.
lower chart: The planetary index, as a percentage of the likely daily change. The curves are computed for the future, and for the past as well.
coloured areas: Their colours indicate rising or falling. Their sizes suggest their contribution to the daily change. The strength of the colours are significant of the probability of this change.
yellow line: Gives a mean estimate of the daily percentage of change. The direction of the line, increasing or decreasing, is more important than his position in the positive or négative area.

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