stock exchange forecast  

Financial crisis 2007-2010

chart updated August 05, 2011

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MetaBourse, August 05, 2011 - 06 pm

Stock Indexes:

Dow Jones Ind - Nasdaq Comp - SP 500 - FTSE 100 - Paris CAC 40 - Nikkei 225 - DAX 30

graph
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World stock market indexes:

- the scale shows the quoted prices of the S & P 500 (light blue, strong)
- the Dow Jones Ind, Nasdaq Comp, Toronto SP-TSX 60, Paris CAC 40 and Nikkei 225 indexes are plotted proportionately.
- pivot on January 6 th, 2006
- last quotes: Friday August 05, 2011


Planetary index:

- simplified variant, using only the single Sa-Ur planetary cycle, magnified
- uses ecliptic longitudes and declinations
- give an elementary outline

Note:

This report is an update of this one.

Comment:

The coming years are strongly characterized by a planetary cycle which will sometimes be prevailing. We observed that this cycle corresponds more often than not to sudden, important declines, which could sometimes go as far as creating a certain panic.

We thus drew (lower graph) a planetary index, covering the next four years, and which takes into account only this single cycle. The red areas are proportional in the importance of this cycle. Obviously, this chart gives only a very partial sight, because as it is usual, some other planetary cycles coexist, and bring their own peculiarities, possibly contradictory. However it gives a synthetic outline of the risky periods.

The positions of the red areas, high points of this bear cycle, indicate the periods which may likely correspond to strong movements of decline. You can see that they extend until after 2010. We conclude that the crisis, that has been called "subprime crisis" will continue during several years, and will make us attend several declines of the Stock Exchange.

There are several steps:
  • A first, partial, case of this cycle occurred in December, 2007. We see that stocks strongly declined at this moment. Their general movement corresponds well to the starting up of what we call now the financial "subprime crisis".

  • A new very violent fall intervened in October, 2008, just when this planetary cycle began its first true offensive. The prices were violently fired downward, sometimes by falling to the half of their value.

  • The end of this phase, which corresponds to the end of the big red area (lower graph) corresponds to a recovery of stock exchange indices starting March 10th, 2009.

  • The intermediate phase, from July to October 2006, is characterized by a more modest red area (lower graph). It has not corresponded to a sequence of decline, but to a rise, which is after all modest related to the very bullish planetary cycles (not shown here) which were in effect..

  • During the winter 2009 - 2010 we had a few month rest.

  • During the large important bear episode we see in the middle 2010, there were several conflicting and contradictory planetary cycles (not shown on this chart) in effect. But it has been soften by a strong and salutary planetary cycle.
    So, as we see, the decline of the stocks prices has been moderate.

  • Since fall 2010 we can consider that the most fearsome part of the stock-exchange crisis is over. A new phase of general increase of the world stock-exchanges prices has occurred, ending at the beginning or March 2011.

  • August 2011, now we reached the end of this cycle. His final occurrence that makes concrete can often be formidable.
    The United States just lost their "AAA" credit rating that has been downgraded by Standard & Poor to "AA+". This unprecedented downgrade may have unpredictable consequences.
This cycle we watched has taken an important part on the crisis, but it is not the only one, because many other cycles contributed.

For the time being, we may expect the financial indexes climb again until the end of 2011. But the crisis is not finished. Other cycles will follow so we may see inflation, and some important changes of the market regulations as well.


Technical note:

The Saturn-Uranus cycle coincided on different times with an important fall of Stock Exchanges. Bear phases of this cycle were present, in a dominant way, during the declines of 1987-1988, 1975-1977, 1966-1967, 1965, on 1941-1942, 1930-1931, 1918-1920, on 1986-1987.

They also accompanied periods of lesser decline or of stop of increase in 1966, 1964, 1951-1953, on 1909-1910. During most of these periods, the simultaneous presence of some bullish cycles, brings plausible explanations to the absence of true decline. In a small number of cases, we cannot judge in a convincing way.


Warning: Our stock market forecasts are set up very carefully, using daily tested technologies. But obviously, there are some remaining risks. Our forecasts are not advices of stock-exchange investment, and we do not provide any warranty. You may use them under your own responsibility.

Take care: The planetary index indicates a trend, it does not claim to give an exact forecast of the prices. There may be slight time-lags between forecasts and reality. There is no steady accurate ratio between prices and planetary indexes. Speculative trades must always be secured, even if using planetary indications.

Comments:
upper chart: The real prices on the Stock Exchanges. The curves stop at the last traded prices.
lower chart: The planetary index, as a percentage of the likely daily change. The curves are computed for the future, and for the past as well.
coloured areas: Their colours indicate rising or falling. Their sizes suggest their contribution to the daily change. The strength of the colours are significant of the probability of this change.
yellow line: Gives a mean estimate of the daily percentage of change. The direction of the line, increasing or decreasing, is more important than his position in the positive or négative area.

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