stock exchange forecast  

Stock markets crisis 2007-2010

called subprime crisis

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MetaBourse, April 13, 2008 - 22h00

Stock Indexes:

Dow Jones Ind - Nasdaq Comp - CAC 40 - DAX 30 - FTSE 100 - Nikkei 225

graph
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World stock market indexes:
- the scale shows the quoted prices of the Dow Jones Industrial (light blue, strong)
- the Nasdaq Comp, CAC 40, DAX 30, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225 indexes are plotted in proportional values
- pivot on January 6 th, 2006

Planetary index:
- simplified variant, using only the single Sa-Ur planetary cycle, magnified
- uses ecliptic longitudes and declinations
- give an elementary outline

Comment:

The coming years are strongly characterized by a planetary cycle which will sometimes be prevailing. We observed that this cycle corresponds more often than not to sudden, important declines, which could sometimes go as far as creating a certain panic.

We thus drew (lower graph) a planetary index, covering the next four years, and which takes into account only this single cycle. The red areas are proportional in the importance of this cycle. Obviously, this chart gives only a very partial sight, because as it is usual, some other planetary cycles coexist, and bring their own peculiarities, possibly contradictory. However it gives a synthetic outline of the risky periods.

A first, partial, case of this cycle occurred in December, 2007. It is indicated by a yellow marker centered on the close of December 14, 2007.

Observing the curves of stock indexes (upper graph) we see that stocks strongly declined at this moment. Their general movement corresponds well to the starting up of what we call now the financial "subprime crisis".

The brutality of the decline illustrates well the characteristics of this planetary cycle. To be complete, let us say that it was flanked by two notorious bear cycles, of which a short term cycle which often plays the role of trigger.

The positions of the red areas, high points of this bear cycle, indicate the periods which may likely correspond to strong movements of decline. You can see that they extend until 2010. We conclude that the crisis, that has been called "subprime crisis" will continue during several years, and will make us attend several declines of the Stock Exchange.

To judge effectively the reality of these movements, it will be necessary to consider all the planetary cycles, including the short term cycles. It will be made in a later study-case.

In the meantime, let us say that the second term of 2008 could know a small recovery. But nothing allows us to think that year 2008 will see again the prices listed in 2007.

Technical note:

The Saturn-Uranus cycle coincided on different times with an important fall of Stock Exchanges. Bear phases of this cycle were present, in a dominant way, during the declines of 1987-1988, 1975-1977, 1966-1967, 1965, on 1941-1942, 1930-1931, 1918-1920, on 1986-1987.

They also accompanied periods of lesser decline or of stop of increase in 1966, 1964, 1951-1953, on 1909-1910. During most of these periods, the simultaneous presence of some bullish cycles, brings plausible explanations to the absence of true decline. In a small number of cases, we cannot judge in a convincing way.


Warning: Our stock market forecasts are set up very carefully, using daily tested technologies. But obviously, there are some remaining risks. Our forecasts are not advices of stock-exchange investment, and we do not provide any warranty. You may use them under your own responsibility.

Take care: The planetary index indicates a trend, it does not claim to give an exact forecast of the prices. There may be slight time-lags between forecasts and reality. There is no steady accurate ratio between prices and planetary indexes. Speculative trades must always be secured, even if using planetary indications.

Comments:
upper chart: The real prices on the Stock Exchanges. The curves stop at the last traded prices.
lower chart: The planetary index, as a percentage of the likely daily change. The curves are computed for the future, and for the past as well.
coloured areas: Their colours indicate rising or falling. Their sizes suggest their contribution to the daily change. The strength of the colours are significant of the probability of this change.
yellow line: Gives a mean estimate of the daily percentage of change. The direction of the line, increasing or decreasing, is more important than his position in the positive or négative area.

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