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Elements of methodology

to forecast stock markets
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Theoretical considerations
Under a shape or the other one, the practice of forecasting after celestial bodies goes back up at the dawn of the humanity. It is most probably not by accident that the astrology crossed the centuries and the civilizations by conveying the idea according to which the state of the cosmos would influence our earthly activities.

Faith or reality? It would be a long debate. We shall not here try to justify the astrology, nor to envisage the possible modes of action, because we know well that the theoretical foundations remain mysterious. But each can notice the existence of a simultaneity.

The tradition leaved us a crowd of receipts and rules which constitute so many tracks to be investigated. Starting from there, the approach we use is based on the experiment. It consists in selecting the techniques which work properly by discarding, at least for a while, those who show an insufficient reliability.

On this base, we build a system of analysis and forecast. By comparing these forecasts with the real situation, it is easy to see, without big ambiguity, if the system gives correct results or not.

Among the possible justifications, also let us note that, nowadays, the number of operators using planetary methods seems really significant, in particular in the Anglo-Saxon and Asian spheres. From then on, we see appearing an auto-enforceable character generated by these initiated operators who act in the direction indicated by the planetary methods, and create there even a movement of the market in this direction.

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A different insight
The concrete, rational and technical character of the financial world is well known. Many operators base themselves on the information, the methods, and all sorts of elements considered relevant.

In the first row of these we find the major methods of technical analysis, based on the study of the history of the prices of stock market equities.

The decisions at the origin of stock-market transactions are conditioned by a large number of factors, which can be as well of financial, economic, political, media order, and the nature of which is possibly subjective as much as objective.

The objective elements play certainly an eminent role. However, in a market of supply and demand, a lot of convergent subjective elements, affecting a lot of operators may have a considerable impact.

Techniques based on astrology aim to reveal the subjective tendencies, of psychological order, which can stimulate a large part of the individuals.

In broad outline, if we could detect for example, in a reliable way, a dominant tendency to the optimism or to the pessimism, to the action or to the waiting-game, we would have a very useful indication.

It is in this spirit, that by throwing a totally different lighting, the MetaBourse system brings an original additional help. This one can show himself decisive, when we want to analyze the situation and to judge the likely evolution of markets.

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The principle

Stock markets, because they balance at any time the market supply and demand, summarize permanently the behavior of all of the market players.

They evolve not only according to the events, but much more to the human responses to those events.

In order to anticipate human reactions, the MetaBourse system makes use of some very universal psychologic indicators.

It takes into account the ancient assumption that claims that, there is a relationship between the positions of the planets of the solar system, and human behaviors.

From this standpoint, one can try to anticipate the reactions of those people who act on stock markets.

Graphical ephemeris
  Graphique des longitudes 1925-2025
  Graphique des longitudes 2005-2012
  Graphique des déclinaisons 1925-2025
  Graphique des déclinaisons 2005-2012
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The technical approach by the astrology
The method is based on completely factual elements. The calculation of extremely precise ephemerides allows to know at any time the position and the movement of the celestial objects of the solar system. We consider essentially the sun, the earth, the moon, the planets.

Their positions with regard to the ecliptic, in longitude and in declination, are loaded with meanings. Also their relative angular distances, among which some are remarkable, can take a particular importance.

The weighting of these elements, at any moment, leads to the calculation of a synthetic planetary index, significant of the celestial state, that we can represent graphically. The use of various rules of weighting allows the definition of several variants of the index, corresponding to various stock-exchange behaviors.

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The comparison to the economic datas
To judge the relevance of the global index, we compare it to the real stock-exchange data. For example history of price of stock market equities, or stock indexes.

This stage is essential to obtain a sufficient reliability. This checking process is at least as important as the forecasting process.

Technical tools such as mobile averages, oscillators, derived curves, applied to the planetary index, past or future, help to consolidate the judgment.

A graphical display allows to appreciate the validity in a visual way.

Algorithms of purchase-sale simulation, using different strategies, constitute an objective measurement.

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Validating the forecast
The stock exchange may seem irrational or unpredictable. In fact, it anticipates and amplifies, according to the general, economic, political climate.

Therefore, it is important, before making a forecast, to study well how the behavior of the crowd of the operators evolves. This is the domain of excellence of the Technical Analysis that will provide a calculated, factual, report and will suggest a likely evolution of the prices.

The comparison of this report with the indications of the global index adds a new vision, which contains another dimension. The global index clarifies in a different optics the reasons of the behavior of the market.

In case of concordance, the conclusion will have a greater weight. Should the opposite occur, it will most often be possible to understand the reasons of the difference. This will help to make more enlightened decisions.

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