Most of the followers of MetaBourse use simultaneously other tools, among which various methods of technical analysis. They are right
Let us not forget, indeed, that no method, whatever it is
, allows to foresee very exactly the evolution of stock markets. The problem is really too complex.
In this context, the plurality of points of view is a mattering asset to enrich the reflection. But provided that the points of view are effectively independent. This is fundamental
* * *
Because two methods based, for example, on the history of the prices have a strong chance to lead to very similar conclusions.
The ideal would be to complete the technical vision by an alternative
method that does not include any constituent of technical analysis. Or better, that is not related at all to the history of the prices
. It should also be independent of any data relative to the economy and to the geopolitics, or stemming from the fundamental analysis.
This is exactly the case of the MetaBourse index that is exclusively
based on planetary data. The calculation system that establishes the index does not know any thing about the technical situation of the markets, neither the prices, nor the economic context. There is a total independence
Thus the planetary index brings a point of view which is totally original
and absolutely independent
from those proposed by all other methods.
At a given time, and for a given calculation model, the planetary index has an overall
meaning, and its figure constitutes a synthesis that is specific to this moment
, independently of the rated prices.
Besides, also let us note that there is a complicity between MetaBourse and the various methods of Technical Analysis. In here are outlines:
- There is a strong complementarity. That's why we have often to call to mind the technical situation of a share, to explain the indication of the planetary index.
- Technical Analysis leans on the observation of the behavior of the markets to suggest a forecast. The index MetaBourse as for him is independent and purely predictive.
- From the methodological point of view, MetaBourse uses mathematical techniques rather similar to those used by Technical Analysis. For example various types of mobile averages, oscillators, indicators, but applied to the history of the planetary cycles, without any connection with the history of the stock prices.
- Technical Analysis brings us a precious help to observe the past behavior of an equity and to identify the planetary cycles that concern it more specifically. These elements are very useful for the construction of the calculation models.
- Also, some overall indications stemming from the Technical Analysis, like those characterizing the volatility or the ability to react with certain global cycles, can participate in the general definition of a calculation model.
There are interactions between the forecast calculation system and the history of the real stock exchange prices, in only two places. In the system that projects
the prices towards the future, and in the system which simulates
purchases and sales. But this interferences occur only after the calculation of the projected index. They cannot have any incidence on the computation of the index
In the first case, we use the current price as a starting point of the projection. The forecasts are obtained by multiplying the values of the index, already calculated, by the last price of stock exchange.
In the second case, the dates of purchases and sales being already calculated, we just take the real prices at these dates, to value the operations and calculate the costs.
These two cases, well identified, are learning and training tools
for the user, but do not pertain to the forecasting system.
To be exhaustive, also let us mention the various laboratory tools, used for statistics, validation and fine-tuning of the software.